Paddy Ashown – Genius or Crazy
Yesterday it became official that Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon (know more commonly as Paddy), will be the new UN ’super-envoy’ to Afghanistan. Is the man crazy or a genius? If there is anyone that can pull together the Western effort in Afghanistan and effectively work with the Afghan government to deliver results, it is Paddy Ashdown. He did a great job in the Balkans, but can he do the same in Afghanistan. My bet is no – well, lets hedge that. If he gets a clear mandate and real powers then yes, he can succeed. But what are the chances of him getting a clear mandate given that NATO really can’t answer what it is doing in Afghanistan (Ok, the Secretariat can, but asked the allies and you get a who heck of a lot of different goals). Even if he gets a clear mandate, will he have the powers required to do the job? The terms of reference have not been announced, but in some conversations with officials in DC last week I got the impression that he is not going to have the powers he really needs. The thinking is that he might not be formally awarded the powers, but that he is a strong enough character that he will just take them over time….risky bet. For NATO, for the UN, for Afghanistan and for Paddy. All of this thinks that maybe Paddy is crazy to step into the lions den – or very brave.
The Western effort in Afghanistan has been less than optimal – that is what happens when you try and do this kind of thing on the cheap. The situation on the ground is not good and Paddy Ashdown has said he thinks NATO and the UN are losing on the ground. I imagine that ultimately he knows this and knows that he probably needs more than he is getting – but that if he does not step in the whole thing is really going to go belly up. I hope he can turn it around, but I don’t have much faith that he will get the powers he really needs. Or the resources for that matter. As one bureaucrat friend of mine recently said, beware reorganisations – they often exist to cover up a lack of resources and rarely do much to improve the situation.
Fingers crossed and good luck Paddy.
Leave a Reply